“Iran’s latest wave of missiles follows Israel’s ground incursion into Lebanon, marking its second form of direct retaliation since its last missile barrage in April — which was largely symbolic. Two questions hover over the current state of affairs. First, whether Tehran’s latest act is a performative one aimed at “saving face” after a series of high-profile assassinations on Iranian soil and in proxy territory. The IRGC claims to have used the “Fattah” hypersonic missile for the first time, but both the degree of damage inflicted on Israel, and the possibility of a follow-up direct strike, remain to be seen.
Second, from an Israeli perspective, the current circumstances differ from those in April. The IDF has gained significant momentum in eliminating targets within Hezbollah’s leadership structure — notably its crown jewel, Hassan Nasrallah — in addition to assassinating Ismail Haniyeh and other Hamas commanders. With the wings of Iranian proxies clipped, the calculus of an emboldened Israel, having ignored calls for restraint at the recent UNGA summit, means that it has freer rein now. This could mean taking aim next at a more important strategic target: Iran’s nuclear facilities”.
– Clemens Chay, Research Fellow
For all reactions from the MEI team, see here.
Dr. Clemens Chay 