Category: Uncategorized
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Oman’s Quiet Return to the Region’s Center
Oman’s divergence from the other Gulf Arab states could help shape the postwar regional order and determine the future of the Strait of Hormuz, I argue in my latest piece for the DC-based Arab Gulf States Institute. Read the full commentary HERE.
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Iran is Betting on American Fatigue
In this piece for the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore, I argue that Iran’s calculation is straightforward: Rising US casualties and mounting costs will eventually force Washington to concede control of the strait. For now, Iran is holding all the cards, while the US scrambles just to keep its footing. Read…
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Self-Preservation, Not Salvation: Deterrence, Diplomacy and the Gulf’s Iran Problem
Read the full piece HERE or in the uploaded PDF above. In this commentary for the Italian Institute of International Affairs (IAI), I argue the following:
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The MOU’s Unequal Bargain: Iran’s Advantage, Washington’s Retreat
Read the full article HERE. In this piece for ORF Middle East, I argue the following:
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The US-Iran Peace Deal: Experts React
Read the quick takes HERE. The news broke during the early hours of 15 June, when United States (US) President Donald Trump confirmed an announcement by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif that a peace deal between the US and Iran had been reached, iterating that both sides had declared “the immediate and permanent termination of…
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Indonesia’s Middle East Gambit: Free, Active, and Overextended
Read the full article HERE. In this piece for ORF Middle East, I assess Indonesia’s Middle East policy under President Prabowo, conducted through Middle East policy instruments such as the Board of Peace, UNIFIL peacekeepers in Lebanon, and the pledged ISF deployment to Gaza, has provoked domestic backlash that now constrains his maneuvering space. These…
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Building in the Rupture: The World’s New Alignments
Read the full essay HERE. I contribute an essay in this volume outlining the global trends that we should be looking out for. My chapter takes a hard look at how the Trump administration has triggered major realignments in the international order and in how partnerships are “traditionally” understood. “American First”, in essence, signals something…
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Force Without Freedom: The Long Game in the Strait
Read the full article HERE. I dissect, in this piece for ORF Middle East, what Washington’s Project Freedom, an operation designed to “guide” stranded vessels out of the waterway closed by Iran, means when it only survived a one-day arc. Despite Washington’s naval blockade, Tehran’s low-cost asymmetric arsenal is sufficient to sustain maximum disruption for…
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A Switch, Not a Signal: Interpreting Iran’s 18-Hour Strait Opening
Read the full article HERE. Inspired by conversations with personnel from the shipping sector, I write this piece for ORF Middle East examining how Iran’s brief reopening (for 18 hours) of the Strait of Hormuz on a Friday evening was timed to exploit global shipping’s dependence on business hours, ensuring no real movement could occur.…
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Ceasefire Emerges in the US-Israel Conflict with Iran: Experts React
Following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire, approximately forty days into the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, my colleagues and I at ORF Middle East offer our reactions to this new development. Read our quick takes HERE. Trump compounded his own difficulties by escalating his threats — warning of strikes on power plants, bridges, and…
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Trump’s Shifting Ultimatums and the Pressures Closing in
Read the full piece HERE. In this analysis for ORF Middle East, I argue that the Trump administration has repeatedly shifted its objectives — from regime change to degrading conventional capabilities — exposing a widening gap between declared success and battlefield reality. With ultimatums repeatedly postponed, domestic approval declining sharply, and Iran showing no signs…
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Collateral Reconfiguration: Will the US-Israel Conflict with Iran Reshape Gulf Strategic Calculus?
In this piece co-authored with Mahdi Ghuloom, we argue that Gulf leaders are increasingly differentiating between personal diplomacy with President Trump and the question of genuine strategic dependability. Gulf states experienced repercussions from a conflict they actively sought to prevent. Iranian missiles struck cities, airports and energy infrastructure despite assurances their bases would not be…
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Ten Days into the US-Israel Conflict with Iran: Experts React
Ten days into the United States (US)-Israel strikes on Iran, the conflict has entered a more entrenched phase. With air and maritime connectivity significantly disrupted and President Trump maintaining uncompromising rhetoric, Gulf leaderships find themselves navigating a precarious balance between containment and active self-defence. Meanwhile, Iran has moved swiftly to fill the vacuum left by…
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Washington’s and Tehran’s Gambles Plunge the Middle East into Crisis
My latest commentary for the IAI – Istituto Affari Internazionali — written with observations from Dubai — examines the two gambles at the heart of the US-Israel military campaign against Iran. Both gamles carry consequences far beyond the region. This is a war of choice built on miscalculation, not imminent threat. Iran is retaliating without…
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The Gulf’s Drive for Omniconnectivity in a Fractured Middle East
Wrote on the Gulf’s drive for omniconnectivity for this year’s Raisina Edits — a product of the forum. Unfortunately, owing to the ongoing crisis, I could not make it to Delhi. What is unfolding in the Middle East right now — with various disruption across aviation, maritime, and energy sectors — reflects how important the…
Dr. Clemens Chay 