The Israeli army launched a two-week offensive against Shujaiya in eastern Gaza in July 2024, and the entire community was almost razed to the ground. (AFP)

I thank So Geok Lan for the invitation to contribute.

In this special essay marking the anniversary of the October 7 events, I told local Chinese media outlet, Lianhe Zaobao, that while Haniyeh’s death should not be exaggerated in terms of its impact on the war, his departure will certainly complicate any further peace negotiation. With Israel and Hezbollah already on the brink of full-scale war at this point, any further miscalculation will have disastrous regional implications. Iran has already convened an emergency meeting of its Supreme National Security Council — the response remains to be seen but adds another layer of uncertainty.

Where regional security is concerned, the US remains the most influential external power in the Middle East with the ability to dial down tensions. The last exchange of drone attacks between Iran and Israel earlier this year was a perfect example of how the tit-for-tat scenario was choreographed with US involvement. There remains, among all parties, to keep tensions dialled down and actions, if any, measured, although Israel’s latest actions have been highly provocative.

Despite China’s diplomatic theatre with the Palestinian factions earlier this month, they have little political capital to mediate with the warring parties, nor has Beijing shown any willingness to be entangled in the entire conflict. Put simply, we should not expect China to play a significant intervening role in the heat of the battle.