Can China fill the gap as next US president tackles loss of influence in Middle East_ _ South China Morning Post (1)Download

As the US presidential race heats up, I spoke to Zhao Ziwen at SCMP on whether China has the desire and/or the capacity to plug the gaps left by Washington.

I remarked that the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, has largely stuck to the administration line, which has demonstrated a current lack of political will in Washington to restrain Israel. Compounded by the fact that in an election year, the Biden administration’s room to operate is limited if he is to avoid exacerbating the domestic political impact of war (and intertwining relations with Israel). How a Harris administration would perhaps go further, from what is deemed at the moment a low baseline, is to achieve a ceasefire.

Washington remains the only external power with sufficient leverage over Israel, regardless of who ends up in the White House. However, a Trump administration will likely be based on a setup that is more committed to Israeli positions, as evidenced by his 2020 peace plan and the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

For Beijing, since shifting away from a spectator stance, its activist approach has largely been limited with small diplomatic wins intertwined with the lack of political will to intervene.

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