In October, Chinese President Xi Jinping met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the 16th Brics summit in Kazan, Russia. Photo: Xinhua

China_s diplomatic clout in Mideast at risk as threats build around ally Iran _ South China Morning Post Download

Quoted in Ziwen Zhao’s piece for SCMP concerning Sino-Iranian relations with the backdrop of an incoming Trump administration.

In particular, I highlight three themes that are featured in the piece — albeit in a simplified manner.

(1) Gaza

Trump’s election campaign included a promise that he will end the war in Gaza, with the president-elect stating, “you’re going to have peace in the Middle East.” But there are a number of caveats accompanying this claim, not least the fact that his support for Israel will run further than being just “ironclad” as termed by the current administration. In other words, based on the precedent set by Trump’s first term when the embassy was relocated to Jerusalem, we can expect Israel to have a freer hand when he assumes office.

(2) Iran

We can expect a further warming of China-Iran relations when Trump returns to office, as Tehran will need all assurance it can get from both Moscow and Beijing for two reasons. First, to show that little success is achieved from isolating the Islamic Republic. Second, to maintain Iran’s economic lifelines. But this equally reveals the asymmetry in Sino-Iranian ties where a disproportionate relationship is shaped as a result of Tehran’s dire needs.

(3) GCC states

There is certainly resonance between a Trumpian preference for strongmen and Gulf monarchical leaderships. But among them, the UAE and Saudi Arabia made the most inroads during Trump’s first term and their rulers will by now possess the acumen to deal with the president-elect. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made a call to congratulate Mr Trump, underscoring a personal affinity between the duo. More importantly, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh understand the transactionalist approach adopted by Donald Trump and will finetune their calculus in order to gain further security assurances from Washington. The UAE, for instance, was made a Major Defense Partner in September 2024 and will expect to receive a further boost whether in military cooperation or its efforts to join the international F-35 program.