China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosts the trilateral meeting with Iran and Russia on March 14, which Beijing hopes will restart long-stalled negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear programme. Photo: AFP

Closer China-Iran ties could provoke US into ‘harsher’ response on nuclear issue _ South China Morning Post Download

I shared my thoughts with Ziwen Zhao’s piece at SCMP on nuclear talks and China-Iran relations. The context? Russia and China have both publicly expressed support for the lifting of sanctions on Iran, while Mr. Trump warned the Islamic Republic that they should come to the negotiation table.

I would add a few more thinking threads:

(1) For Iran, China certainly serves as a counterbalance to US pressure, as well as an economic lifeline while sanctions persist. Iran is in a particularly disadvantaged position as it is also exposed to the “snapback” clause from the 2015 nuclear deal which, when triggered, would reinstate all pre-2015 sanctions on Iran, leaving it more vulnerable. The mechanism expires in October.

(2) The most pragmatic option is for Iran is to thrash out a deal that will also provide the Islamic Republic with economic relief. A connected question is how best to save face while engaging in such a scenario.

(3) If China is keen on being actively involved in nuclear talks, the next step for Beijing would be to navigate the UN Security Council, after 6 of its 15 members had engaged in a closed-door meeting on the nuclear issue — to which Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called unhelpful in building trust.