Quoted in Singapore’s Chinese media outlet, Lianhe Zaobao, on Gaza’s road to peace, as of 19 October, 2025.
Highlights of my comments are as follows:
(1): At the moment, it seems that the first phase of Gaza deal will hold — with US President Donald Trump playing a crucial role in keeping it intact. His role is attributed to two main actions: first, in exercising his leverage over Mr Netanyahu and applying pressure on the Israeli prime minister to stick to this commitment; and second, reassuring Hamas that the US will be invested in ensuring the ceasefire holds, despite Hamas’ giving up of its hostages — which are equally its bargaining chips over two years of war.
(2): The prospects of Hamas’ disarmament will depend on Israel’s commitment to stick to the terms of the peace plan, which entail the withdrawal of its force in the immediate term. Hamas will also be monitoring how transitional governance will unfold, for which there is little detail to suggest which international leaders will be on the “Board of Peace” chaired by President Trump, as well as the formation of the International Stabilization Force that is expected to be deployed to train Palestinian police forces. Hamas’ own spokesperson did acknowledge that the group would step aside in terms of governance for another Palestinian body to take over.
As for the arms, there remains some hesitation by Hamas, and it is likely that the group intends to observe how the next phase will play out and whether resistance or violence is needed. Regardless, Hamas has been facing severe pressure from Arab states since July, following a concerted effort mounted by Saudi Arabia and France to revive the two-state solution. The New York Declaration, a product of this international momentum, is equally a reflection of how regional states are — for the first time — in agreement that Hamas should disarm.
(3): Continued pressure from the United States and the investment of American efforts into the peace plan will be the biggest guarantee for Israel to hold up its end of the bargain. This is not forgetting that Mr Netanyahu’s own political fortunes will also depend on Mr Trump’s support, seeing how the US president had asked for the Israeli prime minister’s pardon during the former’s address to the Knesset.
Dr. Clemens Chay 