Inspired by conversations at the Hili Forum, including by the segment featuring Nickolay Mladenov, the High Representative for Gaza, I argue the following in this piece for the Middle East Institute in Singapore:
- Hamas’s acceptance of the 15-point Gaza Roadmap is less a concession than a calculated manoeuvre — by dissolving its government and endorsing a plan it knows Israel cannot implement without first withdrawing, Hamas has deftly repositioned itself as the cooperative party while Israel assumes the role of obstacle.
- Netanyahu’s rejection of the roadmap is not a security judgement but an electoral calculation — with his coalition polling at 51 seats ahead of October 27 elections and far-right partners demanding maximalist positions, conceding ground on Gaza would cost him the government, making domestic politics the decisive variable in a nominally international peace process.
- The Board of Peace faces a structural credibility crisis of its own making — with pledged funds frozen, the National Committee unable to enter Gaza, its largest troop contributor (Indonesia) on indefinite hold, and one of its own founding members publicly repudiating its roadmap, the initiative risks becoming an instrument of conflict management rather than the resolution it promised.
Read the piece HERE.
