Dr. Clemens Chay

Researcher in the Geopolitical & Domestic Affairs of the Gulf Arab States

Iran is Betting on American Fatigue

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaking to the press on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) Foreign Ministers Meeting in Pasay, Metro Manila on 23 July 2026. Photo: AFP

In this piece for the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore, I argue that Iran’s calculation is straightforward: Rising US casualties and mounting costs will eventually force Washington to concede control of the strait. For now, Iran is holding all the cards, while the US scrambles just to keep its footing.

Read the full article HERE.

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