Dr. Clemens Chay

Researcher in the Geopolitical & Domestic Affairs of the Gulf Arab States

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Self-Preservation, Not Salvation: Deterrence, Diplomacy and the Gulf’s Iran Problem

Shield labeled DETERRENCE with lion, defense, credibility, capability, and arrows labeled aggression, coercion, conflict
A glowing shield presents deterrence as a balance of defense, credibility, capability, and strategic stability.
iai COmmentaries no. 26|30Download

Read the full piece HERE or in the uploaded PDF above.

In this commentary for the Italian Institute of International Affairs (IAI), I argue the following:

  • The US-Iran MOU offers a negotiating pathway, not durable peace, and does not account for Gulf security. As Iran’s neighbours, Gulf Arab states must devise their own solution to prevent further aggression.
  • The Strait of Hormuz represents the immediate test of both regional and international will over maritime governance. Iran’s insistence on dictating fees and passage is about control and could set a precedent for chokepoints worldwide.
  • The Gulf states need deterrence now. Coupled with diplomacy, collective security requires Gulf-led coordination, with Iran’s conduct deciding if its integration is ever possible.

Shield labeled DETERRENCE with lion, defense, credibility, capability, and arrows labeled aggression, coercion, conflict

Clemens Chay

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